|
India-Pakistan
Peace Process |
The
high-water mark of the India-Pakistan peace process over the past two months
was that after seven months of hiatus, first
high-level contact was established between the two sides following the installation
of the new government in Pakistan.
Foreign Minister of
Pakistan
Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee
met in
Islamabad on 21 May and
reviewed the progress made during the fourth round of ‘composite dialogue’. Although no
substantive progress on major issues was made in the last round of dialogue,
the talks marked the beginning of a working relationship between the new
elected coalition government in
Pakistan
and the Manmohan Singh administration in
India.
Both sides tried to instill fresh optimism in the ongoing dialogue and show
progress in the next round.
Significantly,
at a joint press conference after the review talks Shah Mahmood Qureshi
stated that
Pakistan
was ready for “grand reconciliation” with
India.
“Our government is ready for grand reconciliation for the resolution of
longstanding issues that need to be resolved peacefully through dialogue and
in a manner that is dignified and commensurate with the self-respect of the
parties involved.”(1) He observed that
Pakistan
was open to innovative ideas that could facilitate the dialogue and create a
more enabling environment. “We don’t have a shut mind.” Mukherjee’s attitude
was much more cautious. He said
India
was equally determined to resolve all core issues and overcome hurdles in
improving its ties with
Pakistan.
“I’m going back with a sense of satisfaction.”(2) He
also predicated progress in the relationship on ensuring “an atmosphere free
from terrorism, violence, and the threat of it.”(3)
However, it was encouraging to note that there were no finger-pointing
regarding Jaipur blasts and alleged cross-LoC firing and infiltration
incidents. The Indian delegation raised the issue of alleged LoC ceasefire
violations which
Pakistan
denied and urged
India to
resolve the misunderstanding through flag meetings. Both countries, however,
reiterated their commitment to maintaining the ceasefire.
The
highlight of the ministerial meeting was signing of an accord to provide
consular access to prisoners in each other’s jails and agreement on some
minor confidence-building measures. During the talks,
Pakistan
tabled new proposals on Siachen, which Shah Mahmood Qureshi said could bridge
the differences and help the two sides move forward. Mukherjee maintained
that progress had been made on Siachen but more time would be required for
deliberations on the issue. He cautioned that no timeframe should be fixed
for progress. The Indian foreign secretary said two proposals on Siachen were
under consideration.
Pakistan
asked
India to
put the resolution of the issue on the “fast track” because it was possible.
Both the countries agreed to intensify efforts for an early settlement of the
Siachen issue.
Both
sides agreed to enhance their counter-terrorism cooperation by activating the
Anti-Terrorism Mechanism and holding a meeting before the fifth round in
July. The joint statement said the experts’ group concerned should consider
proposals by both sides to develop further CBMs in the nuclear and
conventional fields. Both parties agreed to finalise an agreement to
liberalise their visa regime and facilitate people-to-people contacts. They
also agreed to continue talks on the Wullar Barrage.
Both
sides also agreed to continue to explore ways and means for resolving the
Kashmir issue in keeping with the wishes of the three stakeholders —
Pakistan, India and Kashmiris. The joint statement also elaborated the
Kashmir-related CBMs agreed in the meeting, including an increase in the
frequency of Muzaffarabad-Srinagar and Rawalkot-Poonch bus services,
modalities for intra-Kashmir trade and truck service and implementation of
other measures to expand and facilitate travel for which a meeting of the
working group on cross-LoC CBMs would be convened within two months. The two
sides reaffirmed the importance of ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC)
and their commitment to cooperate to safeguard it.
During
the visit, Mukherjee also had meetings with Pakistani leadership, including
President Pervez Musharraf, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, PPP leader
Asif Ali Zardari and PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif and discussed with them
various issues in India-Pakistan relations and progress made in the peace
process. Later, Mukherjee told reporters at the ceremony to lay the
foundation-stone of the South Asian University in New Delhi, that in his
interactions with Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif a “lot of new ideas”
including those on Kashmir, came up and expressed confidence that many of
these proposals would take concrete shape. This included Zardari's reported
proposal for setting up special economic zones in
Jammu
and Kashmir as a confidence-building
measure.(4)
Coalition Govt in Pakistan
& the peace process
The
new coalition dispensation has showed a bipartisan approach and commitment to
peace process with
India.
On 16 May ahead of foreign secretaries talks, former prime minister and
leader of PML-N Nawaz Sharif in an interview told the Tehelka magazine that
both sides should "seize the opportunity to clinch all issues" and
abolish the restrictive visa regime.(5) He
emphasized: “window of opportunity has opened once again and we should make
use of it, seize the opportunity and simply clinch all the issues.”…"Frankly,
it's not easy but if we have that political will, we can make progress."
He pointed out there is cross-party consensus on building better bilateral
ties; both Asif Ali Zardari and he were together on the India-Pakistan
relations. “We have no problem and we will move forward and both sides feel
similarly… We are committed.”(6) Both PPP and PML-N have expressed their
desire to do away with visa restrictions for
India.
Asif
Ali Zardari, on the other hand, emphasized greater economic cooperation
between the two countries. In an interview to a private TV channel Zardari
gave his vision on establishing special economic zones between Gwadar and
Indian border to create a huge economic empire which would then give a cargo
train access to the Indian markets. He underscored that
Pakistan
was closer to half of
India,
“so we should market ourselves there and sell goods which they are importing
from other countries.”(7) This marks a major shift in the
Pakistan
stance on Gwadar being projected as a trade and energy corridor among
Pakistan,
China
and
Central
Asian
States.
Significantly, in another interview quoted by Uday Bhaskar, Zardari made some
very radical observations about the relationship with
India
which include, inter alia: ‘‘If the bilateral relationship can emulate
Germany
and
France,
then
Pakistan
can be a ‘force-multiplier’ for
India;
Pakistan with
its land and water resources can feed
India
and the world.”(8)
However,
there are apprehensions in
India
expressed in their media that with a “shaky coalition in
Pakistan,
India-Pakistan talks could lose momentum.” A prominent foreign policy
analyst, C. Raja Mohan, said one basic question on peace process was: Could
the new political dispensation in
Pakistan
uphold the core assumptions on the bilateral engagement that
India
had worked out with Musharraf? He asserted that “asking this question has
become necessary after three recent events. The first was a major violent
attempt by militants to infiltrate into
Jammu
and Kashmir. A second was renewed
military tension on the
Kashmir
frontier, in violation of the existing ceasefire arrangement. The third was the
shock of the brutal bombings in Jaipur.”(9) On
the other hand, there is also a positive approach towards new dispensation in
Pakistan. A
leading Indian journalist, Kuldip Nayar, welcomed the new democratic
administration in
Pakistan
and regarded Nawaz Sharif and Asif Zardari as “the best bet.”(10) He
observed that Nawaz Sharif, Asif Ali Zardari, Asfandyar Wali Khan and Fazlur
Rehman were comparatively the most liberal elements in
Pakistan
that
New Delhi
could see assembled to do business with. However, with the new government in
Pakistan
settling down and in view of the upcoming elections in
India,
he did not expect any progress on
Kashmir
but certainly some headway on minor issues like Sir Creek.
Terrorism
Jaipur blasts
The
issue of terrorism resurfaced on 13 May with the seven bombs blasts in Jaipur
(Rajasthan), killing 80 and injuring 150 people. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza
Gilani swiftly condemned the carnage. The
Pakistan
Foreign Office also condemned the blasts and expressed sympathies with the
victims. While
New Delhi
refrained from a knee-jerk reaction, a positive fallout of the four-year-old
normalisation process,
India’s
junior home minister, Shriprakash Jaiswal, did say that the explosions
smacked of a “deep-rooted and very well-planned conspiracy” to disturb
communal harmony in the country and suggested that the links of the terror
strike were in a “neighbouring” country.(11)
However, Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon did not accuse Pakistan or
Bangladesh based outfits for the incident as it was still in the process of
investigation, but he maintained that ending terrorism was a “necessary
condition” for peace and security. He told newsmen that “absence of violence
and stopping cross-border terrorism is very high priority. It is a necessary
condition in many ways in what we are trying to achieve in the relationship
with
Pakistan.”(12)
Later, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh warned that the blasts in Jaipur were of
a piece with the objectives of their perpetrators to derail improving ties
with
Pakistan.
He told reporters after wrapping up his two-day visit to Bhutan: “There is no
doubt that terrorist elements have many objectives — to disturb the
atmosphere of communal harmony in our country, to create communal
disturbances and also to prevent normalisation of relations between India and
Pakistan,”… “We have to be mindful of these nefarious designs and we have to
adopt an effective strategy to counter all these dangers.”(13)
The
opposition Bharatiya Janata Party leaders, however, blamed
Pakistan
and
Bangladesh
for the incident. There were also allegations in the Indian media that the
coalition government in
Pakistan
was trying to strike peace deals with the Islamic militants in
Waziristan
and had lifted the ban on the Jihadi outfits which had led to the
re-emergence of cross-border terrorism.(14)
Meanwhile,
the Union Home Ministry in its Annual Report for 2007-08 alleged that the
hand of two Pakistan-based outfits — LeT and JeM — had been observed in most
of the terror attacks in India as groups from across the border continued to
sponsor terrorist and subversive activities in the country.(15) It
also said New Delhi had adopted a multi-pronged approach and strategy for
countering the activities of Pakistan’s ISI and AJK-based terrorist groups.
“This includes intensive patrolling and surveillance on the borders,
including border fencing, floodlighting and strengthening coastal security
arrangements to check infiltration.”(16)
LoC firing & cross-LoC ‘infiltration’
India
alleged that there were two firing incidents and one infiltration bid from
across Samba, Rajouri and Tangdhar. On 9 May,
India
asserted that its Border Security Force, (BSF) foiled an infiltration attempt
which involved cutting through border fencing near Samba (Jammu
region). The officials claimed that a group of armed infiltrators, trying to
sneak in under the cover of firing by the Pakistan Rangers, had managed to
escape. However, two days later a fierce encounter took place in the area in
which eight persons including a political leader and his wife and a
photojournalist were killed. The incident raised questions on the BSF claim
of foiling the infiltration attempt.(17)
On
13 May
India
alleged that the Pakistan Army opened fire with machineguns and mortars on an
Indian position in Tanghdar in Kupwara district. Several shells fell close to
the post. No casualties were, however, reported. According to defence PRO
Lt-Col A. K. Mathur,
Pakistan
troops fired around 60 to 80 rounds in the area that continued for about
eight minutes. However, no damage or injury was reported.(18)
Indian Army sources however said this was not a covering fire for any attempt
to push in terrorists. It was targetted straight at the Indian post.(19)
The matter was taken up at the level of the DGMO of the two sides and
subsequently a flag meeting was being organised to sort out the matter. The
Indian Army also lodged a strong protest in view of the incident, first of
its kind since the ceasefire came into force four and a half years back.(20)
On
May 19
India
alleged that its Kranti Post, an Indian forward position near Salhotri
village, was hit with rockets and grenades.(21)
India
again called for a flag meeting of commanders within a week to lodge a
protest against alleged violation of the ceasefire agreement. Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh described the firing in the Tangdhar sector as a “worrisome”
development.(22) He also made it clear that all issues having
a bearing on the Indo-Pak relations would be taken up during the forthcoming
foreign ministers talks between the two countries. Shortly before the ministerial meeting Indian official sources said
India was looking for concrete action by
Pakistan in ending cross-border terrorism and
infiltration, which had witnessed an increase recently. The infiltration
level had gone down for a while but it witnessed a rise again recently and
India would raise this issue at the talks with
Pakistan.(23)
Pakistan
maintained that its troops had not fired on Indian posts across the LoC and
reiterated the commitment to maintain the ceasefire. Following a flag meeting
at the LoC Pakistan agreed to probe the firing on the Indian Army post at
Tangdhar. Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said that India and
Pakistan had come “closer” and developed a “better understanding” of each
other through the peace process, and stressed that insinuations from the
Indian side about cross-border terrorism would vitiate the atmosphere.(24) It
is encouraging to notice that these incidents did not lead to a spate of
accusations and counter-accusations which was a norm in the past. The
November 2003 ceasefire has generally held and though the recent firing has
marred the generally peaceful border, the situation is nowhere as drastic as
at the time when both armies fought artillery duels and traded small arms
fire daily
Apart from cross-LoC firing incidents,
India
defence and intelligence sources alleged that several militant training camps
were still active in AJK and that militants were trying to infiltrate from
across the LoC. As a result
India increased
deployment of troops along the LoC. On 9 April Lt-Gen R.K. Karwal, General
Officer in Command of Nagrota-based 16 Corps, which is believed to be the
largest army formation in the entire world, alleged: “The militant training
camps across the border are still intact and around 300 to 400 trained
militants are ready to infiltrate into our side of the state.” He said given
the importance of the current year in the state as the state would be going
for election in the coming few months, the army had made elaborate
arrangements to tackle the militant threat. He said, “in the area which
touches my area of responsibility (16 Corps) there are 19 active training
camps that have been providing training to militants.” He reiterated army’s
stand that all militant training camps in
Pakistan
and AJK were being sponsored by
Pakistan.(25) He
claimed that the 16 Corps had succeeded in maintaining “a near zero
infiltration rate; 12 infiltration attempts were foiled by us last year in
which 14 terrorists were killed and in the current year two such attempts
were made in which we killed five terrorist.” Ironically, he observed that
“terrorists are facing leadership crisis, their cadre strength is depleting,
they also face resource crunch.” Together with this, “the rapidly waning
support of the people have forced militant into frustration.” Indian
intelligence agencies and defence sources also maintained that “Some 300-400
militants are in launching pads ready to infiltrate into
Jammu
and Kashmir to keep the pot of militancy
boiling and boost the sagging morale of the militants here.” The militants
are in 18 launching pads mostly in Goi, Kotli, Nikial, Bindi, Samani,
Dhallupar, Hijira, Sensakudiala Bhimber and Mamana along the LoC. There are
26 militant training camps, including 21 along LoC and four along the
international border.(26) This signified that in view of the upcoming
state assembly elections, India would up the ante on the issue of
‘infiltartion’ so as to justify deployment of more troops along the LoC and
in IHK.
It is interesting to note that much before the
alleged incidents relating to LoC firing or ‘infiltration’
India
started moving additional troops along the LoC. On 10 April Lt-Gen R K Karwal
told reporters in
Srinagar:
“We have deployed additional troops along the border-line with
Pakistan in
order to stop cross-border infiltration.” These units were deployed along the
LoC in Rajouri and Poonch sectors.(27)
India
has deployed 5,000 additional troops closer to the LoC in the 28 division
area in Kupwara. The troops are part of the reserve force of the
Srinagar-based 15 Corps of the Indian Army and will now move to the strike
brigades of the 28 division in Tangdhar, Keran, Macchal and Gurez along the
Line of Control.(28)
Within this context, the Inspector General of
Police for
Kashmir,
S. M. Sahai, said that the
Kashmir
police had devised a new strategy for carrying out anti-insurgency operations
in the valley wherein the focus was laid on "slim, trim and tight
operations" rather than the spread-out operations. He claimed that
during the last three weeks of March and first week of April, police arrested
11 Hizbul Mujahideen militants including some top commanders and the outfit's
chief spokesman Junaid-ul-Islam.(29) This implies that there would be an increase
in repression in IHK in the coming months.
Prisoners’ issue
Prisoner-related issues
remained at the forefront during the past two months. On 1 April,
Pakistan and
India
exchanged lists of prisoners in each other’s jails through their high
commissions in
New Delhi and
Islamabad.
According to the list provided by
Pakistan, there
were 53 Indian civilians and 436 fishermen in Pakistani jails.
India
declared 135 Pakistani civilians and 14 fishermen in its custody. This is the
first concrete step towards the implementation of the recommendations of the
Pakistan-India Joint Judicial Committee on Prisoners held in
New
Delhi in March 2008.(30) The
first meeting of the committee had called for steps for humane treatment and
expeditious release of prisoners in each other’s jails. It had recommended
that prisoners who had completed their sentences and whose national status
had been verified be released immediately. Special consideration, on
humanitarian basis, should be accorded to women, and juvenile and disabled
prisoners for their repatriation. Consular access be given to other
prisoners, including fishermen and those accused or convicted of minor
offences, for confirmation of their nationality. Within this context, the
Ansar Burney Trust has released names of 169 Pakistanis including 29 females
and 19 demented prisoners languishing in the Indian jails.(31)
Apart
from exchange of prisoners’ lists, an accord on facilitating consular access
to Indian and Pakistani nationals in each other’s prisons was signed. Under
the new accord, each government will maintain a comprehensive list of the
nationals of the other country under its arrest, detention and imprisonment
and the lists will be exchanged every six months. Each case of arrest,
detention and imprisonment will be intimated to the mission concerned.
Likewise, each government will inform the other of the sentence awarded to
the convicted nationals of the other country. Consular access is guaranteed
within three months of notice and prisoners will be repatriated to their home
countries within one month of confirmation of their national status and
completion of sentences.(32) The accord is seen as a positive development and
would help in ameliorating the condition of prisoners languishing in jails.
Despite these efforts, there was another incident of death of a 30-years-old
Pakistani national Muhammad Akram, in Amritsar Jail on 26 April under
mysterious circumstances. According to Pakistani official sources, the name
of Muhammad Akram was not included in the list of 147 prisoners provided by
India to Pakistan while under the bilateral agreement, India was bound to
inform Pakistan immediately about the Pakistani nationals who were taken into
custody by the Indian authorities.(33)
Sarabjit Singh’s case
The
Sarabjit Singh case continued to figure high in the prisoner-related issues.
Sarabjit is on death row in
Pakistan
for his involvement in bomb blasts in
Lahore
and
Multan,
killing 14 people. On 19 April, Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab
Mukherjee appealed to
Pakistan to
show clemency to Sarabjit Singh on humanitarian grounds. Prime Minister Yusuf
Raza Gilani also promised that he would appeal to President Musharraf for
clemency for Sarabjit. Sarabjit was to be hanged on 1 April, but the hanging
was postponed for one month after
India
made an appeal to the
Pakistan
government for clemency.(34) On 25 April, five family members including
Sarabjit's wife and two daughters also visited Pakistan and met him in jail.
Ansar Burney continued to make efforts to get clemency for Sarabjit. Finally,
on 2 May the
Pakistan
government decided to put off the execution of Sarabjit Singh till further
orders.
People-to-people contacts
The past four years of the
peace process have witnessed a phenomenal growth in people-to-people
contacts. After the process began in 2004, both countries have been quite
liberal in issuing visas far in excess and outside the scope of the 1974
protocol. The Indian High Commission in
Islamabad issued
1,14,937 visas to Pakistani nationals during the year 2007. Just a few years
ago in 2003, it had issued visas to 8,390 Pakistani nationals and the number
went up by many times to 62,541 in 2004, 90,663 in 2005 and 92,334 in 2006.
The Pakistani High Commission in
New
Delhi is also issuing 300 visas
every day on an average.(35) The Indian government has also suggested to the
Pakistan High Commission that a system of having multiple visa application
collection centres in cities across India would be of help to people seeking
a Pakistani visa.
IPI gas pipeline
There was substantive progress
regarding the finalization of agreement on India-Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline.
Pakistani and Indian oil ministers met on 26 April, and agreed to accelerate
work on the multibillion-dollar gas pipeline project within days after
consulting their governments on bilateral issues pertaining to the project.
Both
sides also agreed on the fundamentals of the agreement.
Besides
discussing transportation and transit fee, they also agreed to set up a
pipeline company, to execute and manage the project. After approval from the
respective governments, the bilateral agreement would be concluded. On
security concerns, Pakistan Petroleum Minister Khwaja Asif said the
government had already laid networks throughout the country along the route
of the pipeline, which was safe and there would be uninterrupted supply of
gas to
Pakistan and
India. About
sharing the supply, Khwaja Asif said both
India and
Pakistan would
equally share the gas coming from
Iran, which
had assured them supplying 2.06 billion cubic feet. To a question about the
route of the project, Khwaja Asif said the Indian side would be supplied gas
through Nawabshah via Gwadar.(36)
The progress on IPI is seen in
the fact that despite American pressure
India has
remained committed to its stand of not opting out of the project. The project
will help both the countries to meet their growing energy needs. The IPI gas
pipeline will now be known as “Peace and Progress Pipeline”. It is a proposed
2,775-kilometre project to deliver natural gas from
Iran to
Pakistan and
onwards to
India. The
project is expected to be completed in 2012, if the work starts in 2009, at
an estimated cost of $7.5 billion.
Meeting of the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC)
The annual meeting
of the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) between
India and
Pakistan was held from 30 May to
4 June 2008. The meeting discussed the outstanding water-related issues and
modalities for cooperation between
Pakistan and
India, particularly the finalization of arrangements for communication of
flood data to
Pakistan during 2008. The dispute over the construction of Kishanganga,
Ori-II project and
Baglihar
projects by
India were also discussed.
Pakistan expressed reservations about the Baglihar Dam and asked
India to allow inspection of the site to confirm that
Delhi had made the
changes suggested by a World Bank expert appointed on
Pakistan's complaint.
Pakistan and
India agreed to provide access to each other to inspect the Neelum Power
Project in
Pakistan and Baglihar Dam on the Indian side.
Pakistan allowed
India to inspect the site of Neelum-Jehlum hydro-electric project in May
2009.
India also assured
Pakistan that “Baglihar Dam has been constructed on the desire of impartial
experts and
Pakistan delegation could also inspect it anytime.” Indian delegation led by
Arunga Nathna said that the Baglihar Dam would be completed by September this
year.(37)
Regarding the
Kishanganga project,
Pakistan raised six questions.
Pakistan’s Indus Commissioner Jamaat Ali Shah elaborated that these related
to the diversion plan, storage capacity, de-silting, power intake and free
board and the matters relating to its gate structure, height and size level.
He also pointed out that with the Indian formula for water storage and with
the Indian design, Kishanganga dam was not safe.(38) Shah said the viewpoints of both sides were opposed to each other.
Pakistan has formally proposed a timeframe of three months to resolve issues
related to the Kishanganga project. The talks to resolve the impasse would be
held in
India in the third week of July 2008. Although the talks remained
inconclusive, “both sides agreed that the issue should be resolved at the
commissioners’ level and third party arbitration must be avoided.”(39) However, if the talks failed the issue might be referred to a third
party for arbitration.
The
Pakistan side first raised objections to the project in 2004 and the Indian
side revised the design of the dam in a bid to remove the objections.
Pakistan raised fresh objections to the revised design, which are now under
discussion. The proposed site for the dam is near Kanzalwan, a town where the
river enters Azad Kashmir. The Indian plans include storing water and then
tunnelling it to the Wullar lake, where it is constructing a 800-MW
powerhouse.
Pakistan and
India also discussed
the issue of Ori-II but could not reach any agreement. However, both sides
decided to fix a specific date in order to discuss this issue via
correspondence.
Kashmir
Pakistan & Kashmir
The
new coalition government in
Pakistan is
shaping its
Kashmir
policy which is largely a combination of
Pakistan’s
traditional stance with an open mind to continue to explore options to
resolve the issue. This is quite evident in various statements made by the
prime minister, foreign minister and the coalition leaders Asif Zardari and
Nawaz Sharif. On 6 April, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi talking to
newsmen said Pakistan’s Kashmir policy has been formulated after due
consideration and it was, is, and will be the government’s desire that this
longstanding issue be resolved in accordance with Pakistan’s historic stand.(40)
Later in an interactive session with leaders from Azad Kashmir and
Indian-held Kashmir (IHK) ahead of the Pak-India ministerial meeting on 21
May, he said “We want to promote relations between Kashmiris on both sides of
the Line of Control and make the LoC irrelevant to resolve the issue.”(41) He
supported the United Nations’ resolution on
Kashmir,
but also defended the ongoing peace process and CBMs with
India.
He said
Pakistan
wanted to break the status quo on
Kashmir. A
Foreign Office statement said that Qureshi had reaffirmed
Pakistan’s
commitment to seeking a just and peaceful resolution of the
Kashmir
dispute in accordance with the aspirations of the Kashmiri people. Kashmiri
leaders, however, said that the people of
Kashmir
would not accept any solution of the issue under the Indian Constitution “as
it will negate their right to self-determination”. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza
Gilani also emphasized the same policy. In his meeting with the AJK President
Raja Zulqurnain Khan, he stated that
Pakistan
would “continue to extend moral, social, political and diplomatic support to
the Kashmiri brethren for their just cause of self-determination”. He
observed that the resolution of the “Kashmir
issue in accordance with the wishes of the people of
Kashmir
could ensure lasting peace in the region and bring about much needed progress
and prosperity for the people.”(42)
Prime
Minister Gilani, expressed similar views on his first visit to AJK. On 30 April,
addressing a special joint session of AJK Assembly and AJK Council in
Muzaffarabad, he underlined the importance of talks for conflict resolution
and that
Pakistan
would use the process of dialogue to resolve the core issue of
Kashmir.
He stated: “Pakistan
wants to hold fruitful and result-oriented talks with
India and we are hopeful that the (ongoing) composite
dialogue between the two sides will arrive at a better outcome.” He called
for an end to the human rights violations in occupied
Kashmir to create a more favourable atmosphere. He
declared that the sacrifices rendered by the people of
Kashmir for their right to self-determination would not
go in vain. He emphasized that “their movement is not against anyone but for
the fulfilment of a pledge made by the United Nations.”(43) He also reaffirmed the assurance that
Pakistan would fully respect the wishes and aspirations
of the Kashmiris about their future status. At the same time, Gilani called
for starting trade and tourism activities between the divided parts of
Kashmir and suggested greater opportunities for the
Kashmiris on the two sides to sit and interact with each other. He said: “We
are happy that the Muzaffarabad-Srinagar bus service has been launched and
some points have been opened along the LoC for divided families. While these
steps should be appreciated, we would also like that trade and tourism
between the two parts is also initiated.”(44)
President
Pervez Musharraf during his recent visit to
China
said that
Pakistan
had now adopted a bilateral approach to resolve the
Kashmir
dispute with
India
which was interpreted as a different stance from the new government. The fact
is that the Gilani government has not reversed Musharraf’s
Kashmir
policy. However,
Pakistan’s
Kashmir
policy under the new administration is closely watched in
India.
Questions have been asked whether the Gilani government has abandoned
Musharraf’s
Kashmir
policy. Some Indian analysts have interpreted it as “different voices” from
different power centres, implying Gilani, Zardari and Nawaz Sharif and Pervez
Musharraf having different stances on
Kashmir.
India & Kashmir
With the upcoming state assembly elections
later this year,
New Delhi’s
Kashmir
policy is greatly geared to respond to internal politics of IHK, though it also
serves to send positive signals to
Pakistan.
During his two-day visit to IHK from 26 to 27 April, Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh appreciated Pakistan’s new leadership for its positive statements about
the road ahead with India and offered hopes of building new bridges with
Islamabad to bring peace to the region and also to combat the looming
economic crisis together. Inaugurating a bridge over the
Chenab
River in
the Akhnoor region in IHK which connects Rajouri and Poonch districts with
the rest of
India,
he said: “I hope that we can continue to deepen our dialogue with the
democratically elected government in
Pakistan. I
have been heartened by the positive statements made by the new leaders.”
Urging Kashmiris to come together to realise their dream of a “Naya
Jammu
and Kashmir”, he said: “Let us build
new bridges across rivers and between communities and between regions, and
between nations.”(45) He also inaugurated a 390-MW Dul Hasti
hydroelectric power project on the
Chenab.
He also announced an economic package of Rs 1,600 crore for the “dignified
return” of the
Kashmir
migrants, mainly Pundits, to the Valley.(46) A
decision has been taken to give a lump sum grant of Rs 7.5 lakh to migrant
families to build or buy homes through group housing societies in the state.
The proposal will be applicable to all migrant families that left their homes
in 1989. The state government has been asked to allocate land for the
purpose. His statements and sops were seen more in the backdrop of the
upcoming state assembly elections in IHK.
In view of the assembly elections,
New
Delhi has emphasized some CBMs
for
Kashmir strengthening
connectivity across the LoC. These included proposals to expand travel across
the LoC by adopting features like triple entry permits and submission of
applications for permits at the district passport collection centre. Besides,
it proposed the operationalisation of Kargil-Skardu and Jammu-Sialkot routes
and increase in the frequency of Srinagar-Muzaffarabad and Poonch-Rawalkot
bus services from fortnightly to weekly.
US & Kashmir
The
US
has also emphasized continued dialogue between
India
and
Pakistan
and indicated that
Kashmir
was “ripe” for solution. On 18 May, US President George Bush during his
meeting with Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani at Sharm el-Sheikh, on
the sidelines of the World Economic Forum for West Asia in Egypt, remarked
that “Kashmir issue is ripe for solution” and that he saw major and
significant developments in Pakistan-India relations.(47)
The US president said he was happy to note that the two sides had made a lot
of progress in their talks on Kashmir and for comprehensive peace in the
region. Earlier on 16 April, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also stated
that the
US
would support
Pakistan’s
efforts to reduce tensions and reconcile with
India
seizing on the “unique opportunity” to foster lasting security of a “troubled
region” of vital interest to it.(48)
On 16 May,
a State Department spokesman Tom Casey responding to a question whether there
has been a change in the US stand on Kashmir, said, "No, there's no
change in US policy on this.”… "Certainly, we believe that any
differences between India and Pakistan are things that should be resolved through dialogue.
And as you know, we've supported dialogue and discussion among the parties in
the past, and we'll continue to do so."(49)
These statements signified that the US is giving lot of importance to the continuation of
bilateral dialogue, and to improvement or relations between India and Pakistan.
Cross-LoC Trade
Cross-LoC trade is under
discussion between
India and
Pakistan for
quite some time. Kashmiris on both sides of the LoC have shown a lot of
interest in it. On 7 April,
Indian
Union Minister of State for
Commerce Jairam Ramesh at the foundation-laying ceremony for International
Trade Centre in Srinagar said that trade via the LoC would be a reality
within three months. "The items to be imported and exported have been
agreed to and locations identified."(50) The PDP is trying to play up cross-LoC trade card
in its campaign for upcoming state assembly elections in IHK. Its
President
Mehbooba Mufti has called for converting Jammu and Kashmir into an area of
free trade and movement (AFTM) in the region allowing peaceful cross-border
access of people and goods throughout the state;(51) while
Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, patron of the PDP, addressing a rally at Budhal in
Rajouri district called for allowing a dual currency in Jammu and Kashmir.
“Like
Europe which has one currency,
we want the currency of both the countries run in
Kashmir on
both sides of the LoC… “As in
Europe where
people travel to nearly 40 countries on single passport and without any visa,
we want people to travel on both sides of
Kashmir
without any restrictions. We want
Jammu
and Kashmir to become a model for SAARC
nations which will have one economic zone.”(52)
New
Delhi, however, dismissed his
suggestion that the
Pakistan
currency should be permitted to be used in IHK. Union Minister of State for
Home Dr. Shakeel Ahmed terming it an "impractical" and a
"hypothetical" suggestion, said the idea needed no consideration.(53)
Meanwhile, the cross-LoC bus
service has completed three years of its running. So far around 3,000 people,
all members of divided families, have been able to travel to the other side
to meet their relatives via the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad road and at the
Poonch-Rawlakote crossing. Divided families have also been able to cross over
on either side at Teethwal in Karnah sector of north
Kashmir during
the past couple of years.(54)
Pugwash conference
The
Pugwash Conference was held in
Islamabad
towards the end of March 2008. The conference focused on the theme of
"Promoting Regional Stability" in
South
Asia. The conference was attended by delegates
from
India,
Pakistan,
Iran
and
Afghanistan.
Most participants felt that the efforts of peace building between the two
nations must continue. Amitabh Mattoo, Vice-Chancellor of Jammu University,
stated that “during the conference, a lot of emphasis was given to cementing
the relations between Indian and
Pakistan by
enhancing collaborative efforts between the educational and democratic
institutions of the two countries. An idea has been thrown up, now we have to
see how the governments make a policy and implement it.”(55)
Talking about
Kashmir,
Mattoo said one view had been that dealing with Pervez Musharraf was much
easier as all powers vested in him. But at the same time, though dealing with
a democratically elected government might be tougher, any solution that
emerges from such a dialogue would be lasting.
The Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) representative
at the conference, member of its National Executive and former BJP state
president Dr Nirmal Singh appreciated that Pakistan had advocated
“cooperative approach to combat terrorism” in the region. However, he
observed: “Pakistan
has admitted that terrorism is the biggest threat to regional stability and
[that] the tool of terrorism which was created by
Pakistan to
bleed
India is
now recoiling on it.”(56)
The
BJP leader made it clear that “any resolution of
Jammu
and Kashmir which infringes upon the
sovereignty of the state would not be acceptable.” He asserted that the
“deployment and redeployment of troops in the state is a prerogative of the
army and the state government”. Amanullah Khan dissociated himself from the
proceedings of the conference and militant leaders also stayed away from the
meeting.
Centre for Dialogue and Reconciliation (CDR) intra-Kashmir Dialogue
On 7 May, a three-day intra-Kashmir conference
was organised by the Centre for Dialogue and Reconciliation (CDR). About 40
political leaders from the Indian-held
Kashmir,
Azad Kashmir and
Pakistan
took part in it. The group supported the composite dialogue process and urged
that it should continue with a “renewed vigour” lest forces of terrorism
raised their ugly head again. The strongest recommendation from the group was
the constitution of a truth and reconciliation commission to address the
issue of human rights violations in
Jammu
and Kashmir. The commission should be
for the entire state of
Jammu and Kashmir
(AJK included) and should address grievances in an open atmosphere of
acceptance. The group also said no decision on
Jammu
and Kashmir should be taken without
the consent of its people, and “separatists” should also be involved in peace
talks.(57) The CDR is contributing a lot in promoting
intra-Kashmiri dialogue.
Kashmiris & India-Pakistan Peace Process
With IHK going into
elections later this year, both pro-India and pro-freedom groups are making
observations and announcements keeping an eye on the polls. These include
their respective positions about the peace process between
India
and
Pakistan
and internal developments of the state.
Pro-India groups
The
political parties in IHK were divided over the issue as to how the Samba and
Jaipur incidents would affect the peace process between the two coun |
